Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.016498 0.018671 0.021026 0.023766 0.026868 0.030273 0.034294
2025-09-14 0.012529 0.015398 0.018769 0.023028 0.028268 0.034513 0.042530
2025-09-21 0.010472 0.013613 0.017519 0.022735 0.029532 0.038102 0.049755
2025-09-28 0.008860 0.012060 0.016222 0.022043 0.029989 0.040483 0.055443
2025-10-05 0.008179 0.011586 0.016199 0.022913 0.032460 0.045591 0.065098
2025-10-12 0.007529 0.011053 0.015996 0.023453 0.034452 0.050140 0.074326
2025-10-19 0.007005 0.010625 0.015870 0.024045 0.036514 0.054899 0.084224
2025-10-26 0.006370 0.009955 0.015309 0.023908 0.037434 0.058000 0.091850
2025-11-02 0.005860 0.009419 0.014884 0.023912 0.038531 0.061408 0.100188
2025-11-09 0.005320 0.008779 0.014231 0.023480 0.038869 0.063609 0.106730
2025-11-16 0.004994 0.008452 0.014038 0.023759 0.040359 0.067746 0.116764
2025-11-23 0.004613 0.007995 0.013590 0.023562 0.041016 0.070528 0.124700
2025-11-30 0.004389 0.007792 0.013558 0.024089 0.042987 0.075747 0.137444
2025-12-07 0.003967 0.007207 0.012825 0.023327 0.042628 0.076897 0.143040
2025-12-14 0.003666 0.006809 0.012380 0.023031 0.043065 0.079461 0.151402
2025-12-21 0.003336 0.006328 0.011746 0.022329 0.042679 0.080476 0.156905
2025-12-28 0.003256 0.006308 0.011951 0.023211 0.045343 0.087363 0.174278
2026-01-04 0.003136 0.006201 0.011982 0.023759 0.047401 0.093248 0.190174
2026-01-11 0.003031 0.006112 0.012040 0.024358 0.049603 0.099575 0.207498
2026-01-18 0.002849 0.005853 0.011743 0.024219 0.050298 0.102951 0.219014
2026-01-25 0.002696 0.005643 0.011526 0.024224 0.051282 0.106978 0.232228
2026-02-01 0.002510 0.005347 0.011114 0.023785 0.051296 0.108989 0.241262
2026-02-08 0.002410 0.005224 0.011045 0.024069 0.052871 0.114400 0.258205